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<h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Multinomiale logistische Regression</span></h1>
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<div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content mw-content-ltr" lang="de" dir="ltr"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="de" dir="ltr"><p>In der <a href="Statistik" title="Statistik">Statistik</a> ist die <b>multinomiale <a href="Logistische_Regression" title="Logistische Regression">logistische Regression</a></b>, auch <b>multinomiales Logit-Modell</b><sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>, <b>multinomiale Logit-Regression</b> (<b>MNL</b>), <b>polytome logistische Regression</b>, <b>polychotome logistische Regression</b>, <b><a href="Softmax" class="mw-redirect" title="Softmax">Softmax</a>-Regression</b> oder <b>Maximum-Entropie-Klassifikator</b> genannt, ein <a href="Regressionsanalyse" title="Regressionsanalyse">regressionsanalytisches</a> Verfahren. Sie „dient zur Schätzung von Gruppenzugehörigkeiten bzw. einer entsprechenden Wahrscheinlichkeit hierfür.“<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Die Antwortvariable (auch <a href="Abh%C3%A4ngige_und_unabh%C3%A4ngige_Variable" title="Abhängige und unabhängige Variable">abhängige Variable</a>, AV) ist dabei eine nominalskalierte Variable (Unterform der <a href="Kategoriale_Variable" title="Kategoriale Variable">kategorialen Variable</a>, bei der die Kategorien nicht in eine sinnvolle Reihenfolge zu bringen sind). Im Falle einer <a href="Ordinalskala" title="Ordinalskala">ordinalskalierten AV</a> (ebenfalls kategorial, aber in Reihenfolge mit gleichmäßigen Abständen zwischen den Kategorien zu bringen) spricht man von einer geordneten (bzw. ordinalen) logistischen Regression. Bei gegebener verhältnis- oder intervallskalierter AV kann dagegen eine (Multiple) <a href="Lineare_Regression" title="Lineare Regression">Lineare Regression</a> gerechnet werden.
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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Beschreibung_des_Verfahrens">Beschreibung des Verfahrens</h2></div>
<p>Es handelt sich um eine spezielle Form der <a href="Logistische_Regression" title="Logistische Regression">logistischen Regression</a>, bei der die <a href="Abh%C3%A4ngige_Variable" class="mw-redirect" title="Abhängige Variable">Antwortvariable</a> <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle Y_{i}}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle Y_{i}}</annotation>
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</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/d57be496fff95ee2a97ee43c7f7fe244b4dbf8ae.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:2.15ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle Y_{i}}" loading="lazy"></span> ein <a href="Nominalskala" title="Nominalskala">nominales Skalenniveau</a> mit mehr als zwei <a href="Merkmalsauspr%C3%A4gung" class="mw-redirect" title="Merkmalsausprägung">Ausprägungen</a> haben darf <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle Y_{i}\in \{1,\ldots ,c+1\}}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle Y_{i}\in \{1,\ldots ,c+1\}}</annotation>
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</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/0683d59c62ab26e41c6eee2ab425a9b0f391203b.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:18.666ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle Y_{i}\in \{1,\ldots ,c+1\}}" loading="lazy"></span>. Zusätzlich ist der <a href="Vektor" title="Vektor">Vektor</a> der <a href="Einflussgr%C3%B6%C3%9Fe_und_Zielgr%C3%B6%C3%9Fe" class="mw-redirect" title="Einflussgröße und Zielgröße">Regressoren</a> <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }=(1,x_{i1},\ldots ,x_{ik})}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }=(1,x_{i1},\ldots ,x_{ik})}</annotation>
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</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/cedfc27d87570ccc59d91b81aa16a289e3bd4199.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:21.141ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }=(1,x_{i1},\ldots ,x_{ik})}" loading="lazy"></span> gegeben. Dabei wird für jede der Ausprägungen der abhängigen Variablen (bis auf eine <a href="Referenzkategorie" class="mw-redirect" title="Referenzkategorie">Referenzkategorie</a>) ein eigenes <a href="Regressionsanalyse" title="Regressionsanalyse">Regressionsmodell</a> ausgegeben. Die <a href="Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit" title="Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit">Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit</a> für jede Kategorie <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle r}">
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</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/0d1ecb613aa2984f0576f70f86650b7c2a132538.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.049ex; height:1.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle r}" loading="lazy"></span> ist wie folgt <a href="Spezifikation_(Statistik)" title="Spezifikation (Statistik)">spezifiziert</a>:<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3.1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
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<dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \pi _{ir}=\Pr(Y_{i}=r)={\frac {\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{r}\right)}{1+\sum _{s=1}^{c}\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{s}\right)}}\quad ,\;r=1,\ldots ,c}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \pi _{ir}=\Pr(Y_{i}=r)={\frac {\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{r}\right)}{1+\sum _{s=1}^{c}\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{s}\right)}}\quad ,\;r=1,\ldots ,c}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/514cef009e4890e6f3f353cded854a7900aa55b5.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -3.171ex; width:57.086ex; height:7.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \pi _{ir}=\Pr(Y_{i}=r)={\frac {\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{r}\right)}{1+\sum _{s=1}^{c}\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{s}\right)}}\quad ,\;r=1,\ldots ,c}" loading="lazy"></span>,</dd></dl>
<p>mit den <a href="Linearer_Pr%C3%A4diktor" title="Linearer Prädiktor">linearen Prädiktoren</a> <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{r}}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{r}}</annotation>
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</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/0762a8103891ea2fa4be69f486947e6f727c58d8.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:5.43ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{r}}" loading="lazy"></span> und <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \pi _{ir}=h_{r}(\eta _{ir},\ldots ,\eta _{ic})\,,\;r=1,\ldots ,c}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \pi _{ir}=h_{r}(\eta _{ir},\ldots ,\eta _{ic})\,,\;r=1,\ldots ,c}</annotation>
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</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/9d18e2c88ef6e9394bf97be6bd87ce7d9e9ecf3f.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:34.19ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \pi _{ir}=h_{r}(\eta _{ir},\ldots ,\eta _{ic})\,,\;r=1,\ldots ,c}" loading="lazy"></span> als der <a href="Kopplungsfunktion#Antwortfunktion" title="Kopplungsfunktion">Antwortfunktion</a>, d. h. der <a href="Umkehrfunktion" title="Umkehrfunktion">Umkehrfunktion</a> der <a href="Kopplungsfunktion" title="Kopplungsfunktion">Kopplungsfunktion</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3.2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Für die Referenzkategorie gilt somit:
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<dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \pi _{i,c+1}=1-\pi _{i1}-\ldots -\pi _{ic}={\frac {1}{1+\sum _{s=1}^{c}\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{s}\right)}}}">
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<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \pi _{i,c+1}=1-\pi _{i1}-\ldots -\pi _{ic}={\frac {1}{1+\sum _{s=1}^{c}\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{s}\right)}}}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/19dfa7d51d2dc8dd1a71db89d9ec01ed06b6e0cc.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -3.171ex; width:51.707ex; height:6.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \pi _{i,c+1}=1-\pi _{i1}-\ldots -\pi _{ic}={\frac {1}{1+\sum _{s=1}^{c}\exp \left(\mathbf {x} _{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{s}\right)}}}" loading="lazy"></span>.</dd></dl>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Likelihood-Funktion">Likelihood-Funktion</h2></div>
<p>Die beobachteten Werte <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{0,1,\dots K\}}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
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<mo>∈<!-- ∈ --></mo>
<mo fence="false" stretchy="false">{</mo>
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<mo>,</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>…<!-- … --></mo>
<mi>K</mi>
<mo fence="false" stretchy="false">}</mo>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{0,1,\dots K\}}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/2654c6c6124add0a5c902715fb3f3c46aa536156.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:16.674ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{0,1,\dots K\}}" loading="lazy"></span> für <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle i=1,\dots ,n}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>…<!-- … --></mo>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>n</mi>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle i=1,\dots ,n}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/f3f269b2f3b2f87fec0168426652a5ea80b56112.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:11.636ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle i=1,\dots ,n}" loading="lazy"></span> der erklärten Variablen werden als <a href="Realisierung_(Stochastik)" title="Realisierung (Stochastik)">Realisierungen</a> stochastisch unabhängiger kategorial verteilter Zufallsvariablen <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle Y_{1},\dots ,Y_{n}}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<msub>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>…<!-- … --></mo>
<mo>,</mo>
<msub>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle Y_{1},\dots ,Y_{n}}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/010c105dda336a4624a635ea54886fb040034d64.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:10.152ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle Y_{1},\dots ,Y_{n}}" loading="lazy"></span> aufgefasst.
</p><p>Die Likelihood-Funktion ist für dieses Modell definiert durch:
</p>
<dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle L=\prod _{i=1}^{n}P(Y_{i}=y_{i})=\prod _{i=1}^{n}\left(\prod _{j=1}^{K}P(Y_{i}=j)^{\delta _{j,y_{i}}}\right),}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<mi>L</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<munderover>
<mo>∏<!-- ∏ --></mo>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
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<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>n</mi>
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</munderover>
<mi>P</mi>
<mo stretchy="false">(</mo>
<msub>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
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</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo stretchy="false">)</mo>
<mo>=</mo>
<munderover>
<mo>∏<!-- ∏ --></mo>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</munderover>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mrow>
<munderover>
<mo>∏<!-- ∏ --></mo>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>K</mi>
</mrow>
</munderover>
<mi>P</mi>
<mo stretchy="false">(</mo>
<msub>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>j</mi>
<msup>
<mo stretchy="false">)</mo>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<msub>
<mi>δ<!-- δ --></mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>,</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mrow>
</msup>
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<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>,</mo>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle L=\prod _{i=1}^{n}P(Y_{i}=y_{i})=\prod _{i=1}^{n}\left(\prod _{j=1}^{K}P(Y_{i}=j)^{\delta _{j,y_{i}}}\right),}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/cb31e5b853e494826e69fabb34f718815ee5ee79.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -3.338ex; width:46.364ex; height:7.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle L=\prod _{i=1}^{n}P(Y_{i}=y_{i})=\prod _{i=1}^{n}\left(\prod _{j=1}^{K}P(Y_{i}=j)^{\delta _{j,y_{i}}}\right),}" loading="lazy"></span></dd></dl>
<p>wobei der Index <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle i}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<mi>i</mi>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle i}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/add78d8608ad86e54951b8c8bd6c8d8416533d20.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:0.802ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle i}" loading="lazy"></span> die Beobachtungen 1 bis n bezeichnet und der Index <span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle j}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<mi>j</mi>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle j}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/2f461e54f5c093e92a55547b9764291390f0b5d0.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; margin-left: -0.027ex; width:0.985ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle j}" loading="lazy"></span> die Klassen 1 bis K.
<span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \delta _{j,y_{i}}={\begin{cases}1{\text{ für }}j=y_{i}\\0{\text{ sonst}}\end{cases}}}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<msub>
<mi>δ<!-- δ --></mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>,</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mrow>
<mo>{</mo>
<mtable columnalign="left left" rowspacing=".2em" columnspacing="1em" displaystyle="false">
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mn>1</mn>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mtext> für </mtext>
</mrow>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mn>0</mn>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mtext> sonst</mtext>
</mrow>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
<mo fence="true" stretchy="true" symmetric="true"></mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \delta _{j,y_{i}}={\begin{cases}1{\text{ für }}j=y_{i}\\0{\text{ sonst}}\end{cases}}}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/2411938e7e9981d2672786880fe3e7680a8ddef5.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.505ex; width:20.782ex; height:6.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \delta _{j,y_{i}}={\begin{cases}1{\text{ für }}j=y_{i}\\0{\text{ sonst}}\end{cases}}}" loading="lazy"></span> ist das <a href="Kronecker-Delta" title="Kronecker-Delta">Kronecker-Delta</a>.
</p><p>Die mit minus 1 multiplizierte log Likelihood-Funktion ist daher die bekannte <a href="Kreuzentropie" title="Kreuzentropie">Kreuzentropie</a>:
</p>
<dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element mwe-math-element-inline"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle -\log L=-\sum _{i=1}^{n}\sum _{j=1}^{K}\delta _{j,y_{i}}\log(P(Y_{i}=j)).}">
<semantics>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0">
<mo>−<!-- − --></mo>
<mi>log</mi>
<mo><!-- --></mo>
<mi>L</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mo>−<!-- − --></mo>
<munderover>
<mo>∑<!-- ∑ --></mo>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>n</mi>
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</munderover>
<munderover>
<mo>∑<!-- ∑ --></mo>
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<mi>δ<!-- δ --></mi>
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</msub>
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</msub>
<mi>log</mi>
<mo><!-- --></mo>
<mo stretchy="false">(</mo>
<mi>P</mi>
<mo stretchy="false">(</mo>
<msub>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD">
<mi>i</mi>
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<mo>=</mo>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo stretchy="false">)</mo>
<mo stretchy="false">)</mo>
<mo>.</mo>
</mstyle>
</mrow>
<annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle -\log L=-\sum _{i=1}^{n}\sum _{j=1}^{K}\delta _{j,y_{i}}\log(P(Y_{i}=j)).}</annotation>
</semantics>
</math></span><img src="./_assets_/eb734a37dd21ce173a46342d1cc64c92/e16cdefcf032a3cf384886aacb54fe65abdf0039.svg" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -3.338ex; width:39.321ex; height:7.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle -\log L=-\sum _{i=1}^{n}\sum _{j=1}^{K}\delta _{j,y_{i}}\log(P(Y_{i}=j)).}" loading="lazy"></span></dd></dl>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Beispiel">Beispiel</h2></div>
<p>Das Beispiel behandelt die Wahlabsicht einer Person in Abhängigkeit personenspezifischer Faktoren. Aus Umfragedaten sei die Wahlabsicht einer Person nach verschiedenen Parteien bekannt (abhängige <a href="Kategoriale_Variable" title="Kategoriale Variable">kategoriale Variable</a>). Diese soll erklärt werden durch verschiedene Faktoren (deren <a href="Skalenniveau" title="Skalenniveau">Skalenniveau</a> unerheblich ist), beispielsweise Alter, Geschlecht und Bildung.
</p>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Literatur">Literatur</h2></div>
<ul><li>David W. Hosmer, Stanley Lemeshow: <cite style="font-style:italic">Applied logistic regression</cite>. 2. Auflage. Wiley, New York 2000, ISBN 0-471-35632-8, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Abschnitt <i>8.1 The multinomial logistic regression</i>, S. 260–287</span>.<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Multinomiale+logistische+Regression&rft.au=David+W.+Hosmer%2C+Stanley+Lemeshow&rft.btitle=Applied+logistic+regression&rft.date=2000&rft.edition=2&rft.genre=book&rft.isbn=0471356328&rft.place=New+York&rft.pub=Wiley" style="display:none"> </span></li>
<li><a href="Gerhard_Tutz" title="Gerhard Tutz">Gerhard Tutz</a>: <cite style="font-style:italic">Die Analyse kategorialer Daten – Anwendungsorientierte Einführung in Logit-Modellierung und kategoriale Regression</cite>. Oldenbourg, München / Wien 2000, ISBN 3-486-25405-7, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Abschnitt <i>5.2 Das multinomiale Logit-Modell</i>, S. 162–173</span>.<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Multinomiale+logistische+Regression&rft.au=Gerhard+Tutz&rft.btitle=Die+Analyse+kategorialer+Daten+-+Anwendungsorientierte+Einf%C3%BChrung+in+Logit-Modellierung+und+kategoriale+Regression&rft.date=2000&rft.genre=book&rft.isbn=3486254057&rft.place=M%C3%BCnchen+%2F+Wien&rft.pub=Oldenbourg" style="display:none"> </span></li>
<li>Gerhard Tutz: <cite style="font-style:italic">Regression for Categorical Data</cite>. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2012, ISBN 978-1-107-00965-3, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Kap. 8.2 <i>The Multinomial Logit-Model</i>, S. 210–214</span>.<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Multinomiale+logistische+Regression&rft.au=Gerhard+Tutz&rft.btitle=Regression+for+Categorical+Data&rft.date=2012&rft.genre=book&rft.isbn=9781107009653&rft.place=Cambridge&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press" style="display:none"> </span></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Weblinks">Weblinks</h2></div>
<ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://kenbenoit.net/assets/courses/ME104/ME104_Day8_CatOrd.pdf">Multinomial and Ordinal Logistic Regression ME104: Linear Regression Analysis Kenneth Benoit</a> (PDF; 466 kB)</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.princeton.edu/wws509/notes/c6.pdf">Chapter 6 Multinomial Response Models</a></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Einzelnachweise">Einzelnachweise</h2></div>
<ol class="references">
<li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-1">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="Gerhard_Tutz" title="Gerhard Tutz">Gerhard Tutz</a>: <cite style="font-style:italic">Die Analyse kategorialer Daten – Anwendungsorientierte Einführung in Logit-Modellierung und kategoriale Regression</cite>. Oldenbourg, München / Wien 2000, ISBN 3-486-25405-7, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Abschnitt <i>5.2 Das multinomiale Logit-Modell</i>, S. 162–173</span>.<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Multinomiale+logistische+Regression&rft.au=Gerhard+Tutz&rft.btitle=Die+Analyse+kategorialer+Daten+-+Anwendungsorientierte+Einf%C3%BChrung+in+Logit-Modellierung+und+kategoriale+Regression&rft.date=2000&rft.genre=book&rft.isbn=3486254057&rft.place=M%C3%BCnchen+%2F+Wien&rft.pub=Oldenbourg" style="display:none"> </span></span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-2">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r261891140">
/* start https://de.wikipedia.org/ */
.mw-parser-output .webarchiv-memento a{color:inherit}
/* end https://de.wikipedia.org/ */
</style><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140327131758/http://ffb.uni-lueneburg.de/ffb-files/File/Fuenfter%20Teil.pdf">Archivierte Kopie</a> (<span class="webarchiv-memento"><a href="Webarchivierung#Begrifflichkeiten" title="Webarchivierung">Memento</a></span> vom 27. März 2014 im <i><a href="Internet_Archive" title="Internet Archive">Internet Archive</a></i>)</span>
</li>
<li><span class="mw-cite-backlink">↑ </span> <span class="reference-text">Ludwig Fahrmeir, <a href="Thomas_Kneib" title="Thomas Kneib">Thomas Kneib</a>, Stefan Lang, Brian Marx: <i>Regression: models, methods and applications.</i> Springer Science & Business Media, 2013, ISBN 978-3-642-34332-2</span>
<ol class="mw-subreference-list"><li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-4">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">S. 330</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-5">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">S. 344</span>
</li>
</ol></li>
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